ANALYSIS OF THE INFLUENCE OF RUPIAH EXCHANGE RATE, BI INTEREST RATE, AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES ON INFLATION IN INDONESIA DURING THE PERIOD 2002–2023

Frederina Jubika Uskono; Fransina W Ballo; Olivia L.E Tomasowa

doi:10.58290/jmbo.v4i1.398

Penulis

Frederina Jubika Uskono UNIVERSITAS NUSA CENDANA
Fransina W Ballo UNIVERSITAS NUSA CENDANA
Olivia L.E Tomasowa UNIVERSITAS NUSA CENDANA

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.58290/jmbo.v4i1.398

Kata Kunci:

Inflation, Rupiah Exchange Rate, BI Interest Rate, Foreign Exchange Reserves, ECM

Abstrak

Inflation has long been an economic issue in Indonesia, where this phenomenon is significantly influenced by several factors such as the Rupiah exchange rate, the BI interest rate, and foreign exchange reserves. When maintained at an appropriate level, inflation can stimulate economic growth in a positive direction. The purpose of this study is to analyze the partial and simultaneous relationship between the Rupiah exchange rate, the BI interest rate, and foreign exchange reserves on the inflation rate in Indonesia during the period 2002–2023. This research employs a mixed-method approach, using the Error Correction Model (ECM) for analysis. The data used consist of secondary data in the form of time series, while the primary data were obtained directly from informants through interviews. The partial results indicate that the exchange rate has a significant effect on inflation in both the short and long term; the BI interest rate also significantly affects inflation in both the short and long term. Meanwhile, foreign exchange reserves have a significant effect on inflation in the short term but do not have a significant effect in the long term. Simultaneously, in both the short and long term, the Rupiah exchange rate, BI interest rate, and foreign exchange reserves have a significant effect on inflation in Indonesia.

Referensi

Adrianus, F., & Niko, A. (2019). No Analisis Faktor- Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi. Sustainability (Switzerland), 11(1), 1–14. http://scioteca.caf.com/bitstream/handle/123456789/1091/RED2017-Eng-8ene.pdf?sequence=12&isAllowed=y%0Ahttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2008.06.005%0Ahttps://www.researchgate.net/publication/305320484_Sistem_Pembetungan_Terpusat_Strategi_Melestari

Aeniyatul. (2019). Bab iii metoda penelitian. Jurnal Akuntansi Dan Keuangan, 3, 1–9.

Afitri, N. 2020. (2020). Pengaruh Car, Roa, Bopo, Dan Fdr, Terhadap Tingkat Bagi Hasil Deposito Mudharabah Pada Bank Umum Syariah Di Indonesia Periode 2017-2019. In Suparyanto dan Rosad (2015 (Vol. 5, Issue 3).

Akhyar, R. R., Khoiriawati, N., Hidayah, L., Malikah, B. I., & Nur Rohmah, I. L. (2024). Pengaruh Suku Bunga, Jumlah Uang Beredar, Kurs, Dan Pengeluaran Pemerintah Terhadap Inflasi Di Indonesia. WORLDVIEW ( Jurnal Ekonomi Bisnis Dan Sosial Sains ), 3(1), 01–10. https://doi.org/10.38156/worldview.v3i1.414

Alfatih, A. (2021). Panduan Praktis Penelitian Deskriptif Kuantitatif. Universitas Sriwijaya, 1–4.

Asri Amaliya. (2010). Pengaruh Tingkat Suku Bunga Dankurs Terhadap Inflasi Di Indonesia Periode 1990-2009. 1–61.

Badan Kebijakan Fiskal Kementerian Keuangan. (n.d.). Inflasi 6,2% Tercapai Pertengahan Tahun. Https://Fiskal.Kemenkeu.Go Id. https://fiskal.kemenkeu.go.id/baca/2008/05/29/105454-inflasi-62-tercapai-pertengahan-tahun

Badan Pusat Statistik. (2002). Perkembangan Indeks Harga /Inflasi. Www.Bps.Go.Id, 01, 1–12.

Badan Pusat Statistika. (2022). Nilai Tukar Valuta Asing 2008. Badan Pusat Statistika, 1, 978–979. https://media.neliti.com/media/publications/50560-ID-nilai-tukar-valuta-asing-2008.pdf

Boimau, D. B. H., Amtiran, P. Y., Makatita, R. F., & Rozari, P. E. de. (2024). Pengaruh Inflasi, Nilai Tukar Rupiah Dan Harga Minyak Dunia Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Sektoral Pada Sektor Properti Dan Real Estate Yang Terdaftar Di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Glory: Jurnal Ekonomi & Ilmu Sosial, 5(2018), 25–40.

C. Bolang, R. T. (2022). variabel Investasi Asing Langsung dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Indonesia dari tahun 1981-2021: Pendekatan Granger Causality Test. Research Journal of Accounting and Business Management, 6(2), 212. https://doi.org/10.31293/rjabm.v6i2.6658

Departemen Komunikasi, & Haryono, E. (2021). Inflasi 2020 Rendah. Www.Bi.Go.Id. https://www.bi.go.id/id/publikasi/ruang-media/news-release/Pages/sp_230221.aspx#:~:text=Inflasi yang rendah tersebut dipengaruhi,daerah dalam menjaga kestabilan harga.

Efi, M., Kiak, N. T., Tiwu, M. I. H., & Ballo, F. W. (2024). Analisis Pengaruh Nilai Tukar Rupiah, Jumlah Uang Beredar Dan Tingkat Inflasi Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Di Indonesia. In Αγαη (Vol. 15, Issue 1).

Henseler, J., Theo L, D., Sarstedt, M., & Ringle, C. M. (2021). Common Beliefs and Reality About PLS : Comments on Ronkko and Evermann. Nuevos Sistemas de Comunicación e Información, 2013–2015.

Https://www.ocbc.id. (2023). Krisis Moneter 2008, Kronologi & Cara Indonesia Mengatasinya. Https://Www.Ocbc.Id. https://www.ocbc.id/id/article/2023/02/08/krisis-moneter-2008

Ikhsan, M. (2022). Alasan di Balik Rendahnya Inflasi 2021. Feb.Ui.Ac.Id. https://feb.ui.ac.id/2022/01/06/mohamad-ikhsan-alasan-di-balik-rendahnya-inflasi-2021/

Kalalo, H. Y. T., Rotinsulu, T. O., & Maramis, M. T. B. (2016). Analisis Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Inflasi Di Indonesia Periode 2000-2014. Jurnal Berkala Ilmiah Efisiensi, 16(01), 706–717.

kompas, id. (2025). Memahami Dampak Kebijakan Tarif Trump terhadap Perekonomian Indonesia. Www.Kompas.Id. https://www.kompas.id/artikel/memahami-dampak-kebijakan-tarif-trump-terhadap-perekonomian-indonesia

Mailindra, W.dkk.(2020).Ekonomi Moneter : Jawa Barat :ADAB

Mandiri. (2020). Daily Economic and Market Review. Daily Economic an Maret Review Bank Mandiri, September, 21–22.

Messakh, S. R., Amtiran, P. Y., & Ratu, M. (2019). Pengaruh Inflasi Dan Suku Bunga Terhadap Investasi Dalam Negeri Di Indonesia. Journal of Management (SME’s), 8(1), 1–15.

Nabilah, Purwanto, S., & Fathihani. (2024). Pengaruh Rasio-Rasio Keuangan Terhadap Kinerja Keuangan Pada Perusahaan Manufaktur Sektor Farmasi . Jurnal Manajemen Bisnis Dan Organisasi, 2(2), 121–130. https://doi.org/10.58290/jmbo.v2i2.126

Nisa, U. (2022). Analisis Pengaruh DPK, NPF, PDB, dan Inflasi Terhadap Pertumbuhan Aset Bank Syariah: Studi Pada Bank Umum Syariah Di Indonesia. http://etheses.uin-malang.ac.id/39209/

Nugroho, P. W. (2012). Analisis Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Inflasi Di Indonesia Periode 2000.1-2011.4. Skripsi, 83.

Palopo, I. (2023). Dan Nilai Tukar Terhadap Inflasi Di Indonesia Periode 2020-2022 Dan Nilai Tukar Terhadap Inflasi Di Indonesia Periode 2020-2022. Skripsi.

Perencanaan, K., Nasional, P., & Indonesia, B. R. (2020). Dampak Covid-19 terhadap Pergerakan Nilai Tukar Rupiah dan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG). Jurnal Perencanaan Pembangunan: The Indonesian Journal of Development Planning, 4(2), 151–165. https://doi.org/10.36574/jpp.v4i2.114

Pratiwi, D. A. (2016). Pengaruh Program Nasional Pemberdayaan Masyarakat (PNPM) Terhadap Peningkatan Kesempatan Kerja Rumah Tangga Di Kecamatan Sabbang Kabupaten Luwu Utara. Skripsi. IAIN PALOPO, 1–23.

Pusat Statistik, B. (2015). Foreign Exchange Rates in Indonesia. 1–60.

Ristiya, T., Alfianti, F., Fadhila, R. N., & Azzahro, N. L. M. (2023). Pengaruh Nilai Tukar, Bi Rate, Dan Cadangan Devisa Terhadap Inflasi Di Indonesia Tahun 2021-2023. SENTRI: Jurnal Riset Ilmiah, 2(12), 5391–5401. https://doi.org/10.55681/sentri.v2i12.1940

Yasin Fadli, A. A. (2024). Pengaruh Current Ratio (Cr) Dan Debt To Equity Ratio (Der) Terhadap Return On Asset (Roa) Pada Pt. Gudang Garam Tbk. Periode Tahun 2013-2022. Jurnal Manajemen Bisnis Dan Organisasi, 3(2), 10–17. https://doi.org/10.58290/jmbo.v3i2.294